Addressing Global Climate Change in the 21st Century
by Michele Barlow
Our global energy system – the production, conversion, distribution and end use of energy – is dominated by fossil fuels. In 1995, fossil fuels supplied 97 percent of the energy for the transportation sector and 65 percent of the world’s
electricity. (The remaining 35 percent of global electricity was derived
from nuclear and hydroelectric generation.) Carbon dioxide (CO2), a gas created
by burning fossil fuels like gasoline and coal, is the most abundant human-made
greenhouse gas. Today, carbon dioxide concentrations are 30 percent higher
than pre-industrial levels.
In 2002, coal burned at electric power plants in Wyoming generated 119 billion pounds of CO2. More than 105 billion pounds of CO2 were produced by burning nearly 22 million tons of subbituminous coal and more than two million tons of bituminous coal at these power plants.
Global Climate Change 101
Most scientists (including those employed by oil, gas and coal companies) now agree that human activities are largely responsible for the dangerous rate at which global temperatures are escalating. Forecasts predict that the Earth will warm 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century – a far greater rise than previously recorded global temperature fluctuations.
Evidence of global climate change is mounting. Massive ice shelves in Antarctica are calving into the sea. The snows of Mount Kilimanjaro are melting away. Storms and cyclones in the South Pacific are on the rise. The ice covering Greenland and the Arctic is shrinking. Wetlands and estuaries in the eastern U.S. are disappearing. Ice fields in the mountains of Alaska and Patagonia are thinning. Once-fertile lands in Africa and the Caribbean are turning into deserts. And glaciers perched on California’s Sierra Nevada Mountains and Wyoming’s Wind River Mountains are vanishing.
But this growing evidence is being ignored by some of the world’s main producers of greenhouse gases, at the expense of the planet’s sustainable climate. Chief among them are the United States, Russia and Australia, all of which have refused to sign the 1997 United Nations Kyoto Protocol, which calls upon developed nations to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 5.2 percent of 1990 levels by 2012. Australia is the world’s highest emitter of greenhouse gases per capita, followed closely by the United States, the largest overall polluter on Earth.
The CO2 Emissions Equation
The global increase in carbon dioxide emissions is a product of four variables: population growth, economic growth, energy intensity and carbon intensity. (Energy intensity means the amount of energy consumed per unit of economic output. Carbon intensity means the amount of carbon produced per unit of energy.)
If historic trends continue, future population and economic growth will greatly outpace improvements in energy efficiency. For example, a plausible – and alarming – prediction indicates that a doubling of the world’s population during this century, combined with an annual 1.8 percent growth in per-capita income, will yield a 12-fold increase in carbon dioxide emissions by 2100.
Carbon dioxide emissions can affect the atmosphere for hundreds of years. Some of the carbon dioxide emitted in 1800 is still in the atmosphere – and today’s emissions will continue to influence the Earth’s climate a century from now.
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